ACHR
Moving with the market
- ACHR +0.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ACHR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.24 +4.2% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
4.46 +9.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 4.09 · prior close 4.07 | |
| Bargain buy side |
3.91 -4.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
3.71 -8.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 3.85 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 4.30 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 3.91 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 4.24 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 3.95 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 4.19 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 3.60 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 4.60 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 3.71 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 4.46 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 3.82 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 4.34 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ACHR's daily swings (about 4.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -7.3% | -9.2% | — | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -7.4% | +2.5% | -11.3% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.7% | -2.7% | +27.3% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -6.1% | +13.8% | +47.4% | -9.4% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -8.2% | -1.6% | +5.5% | -4.3% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -13.2% | -8.3% | -12.6% | +3.1% |
| May 15, 2026 | -5.6% | +5.1% | -10.1% | +5.6% |
| Mar 24, 2026 | -6.5% | -6.2% | +4.7% | -8.3% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | -5.1% | +4.0% | +3.3% | +19.2% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | -4.4% | -2.3% | -11.4% | -13.8% |
| Sep 25, 2024 | -4.3% | +10.0% | +6.2% | +271.1% |
| Dec 13, 2022 | -1.9% | -7.6% | +23.2% | +26.5% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | -8.5% | +3.2% | -14.1% | +7.6% |
| Sep 26, 2022 | -2.1% | -0.7% | +5.5% | -34.3% |
| Jan 6, 2022 | -7.2% | -20.4% | -39.3% | -18.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ACHR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 18, 2021 |
17.14 +319.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
13.03 +219.0% |
| 200-day average | 6.05 +48.1% |
| 50-day average | 5.54 +35.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 4.46 +9.2% |
| Now | 4.09 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
4.07 -0.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
4.07 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 3.71 -9.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.