ACI
Moving with the market
- ACI +0.42% on the last session vs SPY −0.03%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported results Oct 13 before the open: EPS $0.42 vs $0.31 expected (beat, +$0.11, +35.5%).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ACI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
13.39 +2.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
13.78 +5.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 13.14 · prior close 13.08 | |
| Bargain buy side |
12.78 -2.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
12.42 -5.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 12.68 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 13.49 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 12.78 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 13.39 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 12.87 | 4 in 10 days | 13.29 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 12.21 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 14.01 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 12.42 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 13.78 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 12.61 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 13.56 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ACI's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | +2.3% | +11.4% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +3.2% | +2.2% | +3.8% | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | +3.3% | +1.2% | -2.5% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | +3.2% | -3.4% | +2.6% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +5.0% | +1.5% | +3.4% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +3.1% | +1.1% | +8.9% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | +2.9% | +2.4% | -16.6% | -15.1% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +2.1% | +3.8% | -14.9% | -14.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among ACI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 6, 2021 |
24.32 +85.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 17, 2025 |
18.93 +44.1% |
| 200-day average | 14.90 +13.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 13.78 +4.9% |
| Now | 13.14 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
13.08 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 12.42 -5.5% |
| 50-day average | 12.20 -7.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 24, 2026 |
11.03 -16.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.