AD
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
33.32 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
33.90 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 33.40 · prior close 32.86 | |
| Bargain buy side |
32.40 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
31.85 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 32.26 | 2 in 10 days | 33.47 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 32.40 | 3 in 10 days | 33.32 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 32.54 | 4 in 10 days | 33.18 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 31.53 | 2 in 10 weeks | 34.25 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 31.85 | 3 in 10 weeks | 33.90 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 32.15 | 4 in 10 weeks | 33.58 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AD's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among AD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 29, 1999 |
47.25 +41.5% |
| 52-week closing high May 8, 2026 |
44.05 +31.9% |
| 200-day average | 37.12 +11.1% |
| 50-day average | 35.02 +4.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 33.90 +1.5% |
| Now | 33.40 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
32.86 -1.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 31.85 -4.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
29.14 -12.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 38 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.