ADBE
Up more than its software peers
- ADBE +3.74% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- More than its group: its software peers +2.1% (+2.0 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.4%): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, ADBE was higher a day later 37 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -1.3% and +1.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 8 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 68% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: HSBC downgraded to Hold, lowered target $310 → $267.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ADBE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
246.06 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
252.89 +5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 249.69 · prior close 240.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
235.41 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
229.06 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 233.73 | 2 in 10 days | 247.84 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 235.41 | 3 in 10 days | 246.06 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 237.00 | 4 in 10 days | 244.42 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 225.41 | 2 in 10 weeks | 256.98 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 229.06 | 3 in 10 weeks | 252.89 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 232.52 | 4 in 10 weeks | 249.13 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ADBE's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ADBE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 19, 2021 |
688.37 +175.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 373.00 +49.4% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 28, 2025 |
359.91 +44.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 272.31 +9.1% |
| 50-day average | 256.80 +2.8% |
| 200-day average | 254.74 +2.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 252.89 +1.3% |
| Now | 249.69 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
240.68 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 229.06 -8.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 195.00 -21.9% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 25, 2026 |
193.41 -22.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 40 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.