ADI
Moving with the market
- ADI −0.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: −0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Not a group move: its semiconductors peers -0.5% (-0.7 pts vs SPY).
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ADI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
411.01 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
420.39 +4.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 401.30 · prior close 403.57 | |
| Bargain buy side |
396.27 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
387.42 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 393.92 | 2 in 10 days | 413.45 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 396.27 | 3 in 10 days | 411.01 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 398.46 | 4 in 10 days | 408.74 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 382.32 | 2 in 10 weeks | 426.00 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 387.42 | 3 in 10 weeks | 420.39 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 392.24 | 4 in 10 weeks | 415.22 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ADI's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.5% | -1.6% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.7% | +6.1% | +14.9% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.4% | +0.4% | +10.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -3.5% | -0.8% | -3.4% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -3.4% | +6.9% | +6.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -2.7% | -0.1% | +2.3% | +6.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -3.0% | +4.9% | -4.1% | +7.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -8.6% | -2.5% | -6.6% | -3.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among ADI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 675.00 +68.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 470.72 +17.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
444.13 +10.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 420.39 +4.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
403.57 +0.6% |
| Now | 401.30 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 387.42 -3.5% |
| 50-day average | 382.48 -4.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 365.00 -9.0% |
| 200-day average | 363.94 -9.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
222.42 -44.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.