ADM
Moving with the market
- ADM −0.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, ADM was higher a day later 31 times out of 57; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ADM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
85.07 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
86.88 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 83.25 · prior close 83.64 | |
| Bargain buy side |
82.23 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
80.52 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 81.78 | 2 in 10 days | 85.54 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 82.23 | 3 in 10 days | 85.07 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 82.66 | 4 in 10 days | 84.64 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 79.54 | 2 in 10 weeks | 87.95 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 80.52 | 3 in 10 weeks | 86.88 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 81.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 85.88 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ADM's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ADM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 95.00 +14.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 17, 2026 |
88.09 +5.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 86.88 +4.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
83.64 +0.5% |
| Now | 83.25 |
| 50-day average | 82.01 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 80.52 -3.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 80.40 -3.4% |
| 200-day average | 74.82 -10.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 60.00 -27.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 10, 2025 |
54.41 -34.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.