AEIS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AEIS −6.73% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −6.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AEIS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
269.72 +3.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
281.21 +7.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 243.23 · prior close 260.77 | |
| Bargain buy side |
252.12 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
241.82 -7.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 249.37 | 2 in 10 days | 272.69 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 252.12 | 3 in 10 days | 269.72 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 254.71 | 4 in 10 days | 266.98 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 235.96 | 2 in 10 weeks | 288.18 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 241.82 | 3 in 10 weeks | 281.21 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 247.41 | 4 in 10 weeks | 274.86 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AEIS's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.1% | -7.1% | +5.5% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.0% | +3.0% | +3.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -9.8% | -12.4% | -19.1% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -3.5% | -4.8% | -9.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.3% | +10.2% | +15.5% | -8.8% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -7.4% | +6.1% | +14.4% | +3.4% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -7.2% | -10.7% | -21.5% | -19.6% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -5.5% | +2.6% | -18.9% | -28.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among AEIS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 1, 2026 |
388.79 +59.8% |
| 200-day average | 308.04 +26.6% |
| 50-day average | 286.64 +17.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 281.21 +15.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
260.77 +7.2% |
| Now | 243.23 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 241.82 -0.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
182.48 -25.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.