AEM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AEM +4.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +4.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AEM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
181.61 +2.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
187.47 +5.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 184.45 · prior close 177.01 | |
| Bargain buy side |
172.52 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
167.13 -5.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 171.09 | 2 in 10 days | 183.14 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 172.52 | 3 in 10 days | 181.61 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 173.87 | 4 in 10 days | 180.21 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 164.04 | 2 in 10 weeks | 191.00 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 167.13 | 3 in 10 weeks | 187.47 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 170.06 | 4 in 10 weeks | 184.24 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AEM's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.0% | -1.9% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -3.9% | -6.3% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -2.9% | +2.4% | -3.9% | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | -4.5% | -7.9% | -8.9% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -2.6% | +17.6% | +9.8% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -3.6% | +23.1% | +39.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.5% | +5.3% | +35.8% | +29.2% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -3.0% | -3.9% | +10.1% | +22.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among AEM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
251.01 +36.1% |
| 50-day average | 194.00 +5.2% |
| 200-day average | 188.81 +2.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 187.47 +1.6% |
| Now | 184.45 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
177.01 -4.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 167.13 -9.4% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 20, 2026 |
136.04 -26.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.