AEO
Reddit attention is surging
- AEO −1.45% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Sep 28): After its 64 big gains in the past 5 years, AEO typically gained 0.6% over the next day (median) and was higher 58% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +1.8%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #91 of 500.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 90% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: BMO Capital maintained Market Perform, raised target $18.00 → $20.00.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#247 H | 0.0%#369 H | -1.9%#462 H | -5.9%#472 M |
| Big drop (-4.0% or worse) | 61 | +0.7%#27 H | +1.3%#143 H | -1.7%#423 H | -6.0%#284 M |
| Big gain Sep 28 (+3.9% or better) | 64 | +0.6%#91 H | +0.6%#192 H | -0.5%#319 H | +5.4%#213 M |
| Earnings beat | 12 | +0.4%#195 M | +0.6%#221 M | -3.3%#356 M | -6.0%#442 M |
| Earnings miss | 5 | -4.5%#250 L | -5.0%#266 L | -7.0%#277 L | -9.7%#181 L |
| 52-week high | 8 | +1.5%#150 M | -1.1%#294 M | +0.1%#258 M | +13.5%#76 L |
| 52-week low | 4 | 0.0%#134 L | +1.3%#107 L | -5.3%#189 L | -12.8%#114 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 9 | +1.3%#44 M | -1.1%#343 M | +0.5%#269 M | -4.8%#367 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 10 | +2.1%#18 M | -2.1%#407 M | +5.6%#113 M | -1.5%#329 M |
| RSI oversold | 10 | +1.7%#88 M | +1.6%#174 M | +1.8%#257 M | -8.0%#463 M |
| RSI overbought | 11 | +0.1%#237 M | +1.3%#178 M | -4.4%#327 M | +5.7%#188 L |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 4 | +3.7%#11 L | +3.5%#22 L | +13.9%– | +38.7%– |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | -2.1%– | -1.5%– | +10.2%– | -7.2%– |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 14 | -3.4%#27 M | +0.6%#17 M | -9.4%#27 L | +24.2%#6 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is AEO's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed below 200-day avg
The close moves below its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | +2.10% (+0.7 to +2.4) | Medium | #18 of 497 | 80% | +2.10% |
-2%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 10 | -2.12% (-4.2 to +1.4) | Medium | #407 of 497 | 40% | -1.44% |
-9%
+8%
|
|
| 1 month | 10 | +5.63% (-6.7 to +7.7) | Medium | #113 of 496 | 70% | +1.69% |
-10%
+55%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 10 ≈8 indep. | -1.49% (-7.5 to +6.5) | Medium | #329 of 493 | 50% | -8.39% |
-20%
+42%
|
Range of outcomes: all of AEO's crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed below 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 3 | +2.8%L vs 0.0% | -3.0%L vs +0.4% | +23.8%L vs +0.3% | +38.3%L vs +9.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 7 | +1.7%L vs +0.2% | -1.2%L vs -0.6% | +5.6%L vs -3.3% | -4.7%L vs -8.0% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 5 | +2.4%L vs 0.0% | -3.0%L vs +0.2% | +2.3%L vs -2.0% | -4.7%L vs -0.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 5 | +1.9%L vs +0.2% | -1.2%L vs -0.4% | +5.7%L vs -1.9% | +1.8%L vs -8.0% |
The same event split by where AEO stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | Apr 23 @ $18.05 | -2.8% on the day | -1.5% | -4.2% | -9.1% | -5.8% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Mar 16 @ $17.16 | -1.0% on the day | +0.7% | -3.1% | +12.3% | +6.8% |
| Aug 14, 2025 | Aug 14 @ $12.30 | -6.5% on the day | +2.8% | -3.0% | +55.3% | +42.1% |
| Oct 3, 2024 | Oct 3 @ $20.29 | -2.1% on the day | +2.4% | -6.0% | -9.6% | -20.2% |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Aug 29 @ $19.47 | -4.2% on the day | -1.0% | -9.1% | +7.7% | -10.0% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Jul 24 @ $19.54 | -3.2% on the day | +1.7% | +5.8% | +2.3% | -4.7% |
| Jun 20, 2024 | Jun 20 @ $18.46 | -4.2% on the day | +2.3% | +1.4% | +5.6% | +1.8% |
| Jul 21, 2023 | Jul 21 @ $11.80 | -2.4% on the day | +3.4% | +8.4% | +23.8% | +38.3% |
| Apr 25, 2023 | Apr 25 @ $11.74 | -5.8% on the day | +1.9% | -1.2% | -6.7% | +6.5% |
| Mar 13, 2023 | Mar 13 @ $11.52 | -4.0% on the day | +3.6% | +1.8% | +5.7% | -7.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.