AEO
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- AEO +2.22% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 2 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AEO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
18.09 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
18.72 +6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 17.99 · prior close 17.60 | |
| Bargain buy side |
17.12 -2.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
16.55 -6.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 16.97 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 18.25 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 17.12 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 18.09 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 17.26 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 17.94 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 16.22 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 19.10 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 16.55 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 18.72 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 16.86 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 18.37 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AEO's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among AEO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 23, 2021 |
32.41 +80.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
27.47 +52.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 27.00 +50.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 18.72 +4.1% |
| 200-day average | 18.55 +3.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 18.55 +3.1% |
| Now | 17.99 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
17.60 -2.2% |
| 50-day average | 16.68 -7.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 16.55 -8.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 15.00 -16.6% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 10, 2026 |
14.43 -19.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.