AEP
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AEP −1.16% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg ($124.67 today so far, below its 200-day average of $126.08): After its 8 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, AEP was higher a day later 6 times out of 8; half the outcomes fell between -0.1% and +0.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AEP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
127.19 +0.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
128.52 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 124.67 · prior close 126.13 | |
| Bargain buy side |
125.08 -0.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
123.79 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 124.74 | 2 in 10 days | 127.54 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 125.08 | 3 in 10 days | 127.19 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 125.39 | 4 in 10 days | 126.87 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 123.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 129.30 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 123.79 | 3 in 10 weeks | 128.52 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 124.49 | 4 in 10 weeks | 127.79 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AEP's daily swings (about 0.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AEP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 173.00 +38.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 142.53 +14.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 26, 2026 |
137.64 +10.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 128.52 +3.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 128.00 +2.7% |
| 200-day average | 126.14 +1.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
126.13 +1.2% |
| Now | 124.67 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 123.79 -0.7% |
| 50-day average | 122.59 -1.7% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
111.15 -10.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.