AES

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• AES −0.07% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 1): After its 19 overbought readings in the past 5 years, AES typically lost 1.4% over the next day (median) and was higher only 11% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.6% and -0.3%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after overbought readings, that ranks #470 of 501.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.