AFL

Moving with the market

• AFL +0.32% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, rsi oversold (Oct 1): After its 7 oversold readings in the past 5 years, AFL typically gained 0.3% over the next day (median) and was higher 57% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +0.8%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after oversold readings, that ranks #149 of 496. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.