AFRM
Up more than its brokers & fintech peers
- AFRM +4.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- More than its group: its brokers & fintech peers +1.4% (+1.2 pts vs SPY).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AFRM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
73.18 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
76.63 +8.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 73.35 · prior close 70.51 | |
| Bargain buy side |
67.93 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
64.88 -8.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 67.12 | 2 in 10 days | 74.07 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 67.93 | 3 in 10 days | 73.18 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 68.70 | 4 in 10 days | 72.36 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 63.15 | 2 in 10 weeks | 78.73 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 64.88 | 3 in 10 weeks | 76.63 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 66.54 | 4 in 10 weeks | 74.72 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AFRM's daily swings (about 3.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.1% | +1.7% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -6.1% | -2.6% | +0.7% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -4.9% | +3.2% | -3.9% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -4.7% | -7.7% | -2.0% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -5.3% | +8.7% | +6.5% | -0.6% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -6.7% | -5.2% | +29.4% | +11.8% |
| May 8, 2026 | -5.0% | +2.8% | +1.7% | +18.0% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -5.4% | +2.1% | +3.6% | +11.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among AFRM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 4, 2021 |
168.52 +129.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 6, 2026 |
85.78 +17.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 76.63 +4.5% |
| 50-day average | 73.71 +0.5% |
| Now | 73.35 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
70.51 -3.9% |
| 200-day average | 66.80 -8.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 64.88 -11.5% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
42.53 -42.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.