AGM
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AGM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
204.50 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
207.43 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Last close | 202.16 | |
| Bargain buy side |
199.85 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
197.02 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 199.10 | 2 in 10 days | 205.27 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 199.85 | 3 in 10 days | 204.50 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 200.54 | 4 in 10 days | 203.79 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 195.38 | 2 in 10 weeks | 209.18 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 197.02 | 3 in 10 weeks | 207.43 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 198.56 | 4 in 10 weeks | 205.82 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AGM's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among AGM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 4, 2026 |
240.02 +18.7% |
| 50-day average | 213.20 +5.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 207.43 +2.6% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
202.16 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 197.02 -2.5% |
| 200-day average | 186.65 -7.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 19, 2026 |
136.80 -32.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.