AGNC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AGNC +3.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Mon after the close: EPS $0.39 expected (4 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AGNC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
8.73 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
8.88 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 8.90 · prior close 8.61 | |
| Bargain buy side |
8.49 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
8.35 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 8.45 | 2 in 10 days | 8.77 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 8.49 | 3 in 10 days | 8.73 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 8.53 | 4 in 10 days | 8.69 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 8.26 | 2 in 10 weeks | 8.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.35 | 3 in 10 weeks | 8.88 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 8.42 | 4 in 10 weeks | 8.80 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AGNC's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AGNC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 16, 2026 |
11.04 +24.0% |
| 200-day average | 10.06 +13.1% |
| 50-day average | 9.91 +11.4% |
| Now | 8.90 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 8.88 -0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
8.61 -3.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 7, 2026 |
8.46 -4.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.35 -6.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.