AGYS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AGYS +4.67% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +4.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AGYS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
109.70 +2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
112.60 +4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 112.43 · prior close 107.41 | |
| Bargain buy side |
105.17 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
102.46 -4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 104.45 | 2 in 10 days | 110.45 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 105.17 | 3 in 10 days | 109.70 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 105.84 | 4 in 10 days | 109.00 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 100.90 | 2 in 10 weeks | 114.34 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 102.46 | 3 in 10 weeks | 112.60 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 103.93 | 4 in 10 weeks | 111.00 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AGYS's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AGYS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 17, 2024 |
141.74 +26.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 28, 2025 |
141.12 +25.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 112.60 +0.1% |
| Now | 112.43 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
107.41 -4.5% |
| 50-day average | 107.24 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 102.46 -8.9% |
| 200-day average | 91.86 -18.3% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
62.19 -44.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.