AIG
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AIG −0.66% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Sep 29): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, AIG typically gained 1.7% over the next month (median) and was higher 59% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.1% and +5.0%. An ordinary month: +1.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #192 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#160 H | +0.4%#107 H | +1.0%#215 H | +2.5%#236 M |
| Big drop Sep 28 (-1.6% or worse) | 53 | +0.2%#191 H | +1.0%#164 H | +2.9%#44 H | +2.1%#414 M |
| Big gain Sep 29 (+1.6% or better) | 57 | 0.0%#394 H | +0.3%#244 H | +1.7%#192 H | +2.5%#357 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | -0.1%#352 M | -1.0%#408 M | +1.0%#273 M | +0.7%#399 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | -0.9%– | -2.2%– | +1.9%– | +1.4%– |
| 52-week high | 10 | 0.0%#269 M | +0.6%#139 M | -0.7%#377 M | +2.3%#214 L |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 16 | 0.0%#386 M | +0.8%#97 M | -1.7%#494 M | +3.5%#318 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 16 | +0.6%#18 M | -0.4%#359 M | +0.2%#354 M | +2.8%#389 M |
| RSI oversold | 5 | +0.3%#238 L | +2.1%#202 L | +3.5%#157 L | +3.8%#374 L |
| RSI overbought | 14 | +0.3%#48 M | -0.9%#394 M | +0.4%#270 M | +0.9%#286 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is AIG's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 16 | -0.05% (-0.3 to +0.1) | Medium | #386 of 497 | 44% | -0.38% |
-5%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 16 | +0.75% (-1.1 to +1.2) | Medium | #97 of 497 | 56% | -0.99% |
-6%
+7%
|
|
| 1 month | 16 | -1.75% (-3.9 to +0.2) | Medium | #494 of 497 | 38% | -2.49% |
-8%
+8%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 15 ≈10 indep. | +3.45% (+1.2 to +6.2) | Medium | #318 of 494 | 67% | -2.61% |
-5%
+12%
|
Range of outcomes: all of AIG's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 12 | +0.2%M vs +0.1% | +0.1%M vs +0.2% | -3.3%M vs 0.0% | +3.5%M vs +2.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 4 | -0.7%L vs +0.2% | +1.3%L vs +1.0% | +0.6%L vs +2.6% | +2.7%– vs +2.6% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 11 | +0.4%M vs 0.0% | -0.3%M vs +0.3% | -2.7%M vs +0.3% | +3.6%M vs +2.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 5 | -0.1%L vs +0.1% | +1.2%L vs +0.5% | +0.2%L vs +2.0% | +3.1%L vs +2.5% |
The same event split by where AIG stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Aug 24 @ $76.87 | +1.7% on the day | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.7% | … |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 2 @ $78.87 | +3.7% on the day | +1.7% | -0.3% | -0.8% | -4.4% |
| May 18, 2026 | May 18 @ $77.33 | +3.0% on the day | -1.1% | -1.5% | -3.9% | -2.2% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $77.19 | +1.5% on the day | +0.6% | -2.4% | -2.7% | +3.6% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Feb 18 @ $78.28 | +0.5% on the day | -0.3% | +0.5% | -6.8% | -2.3% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Dec 10 @ $79.13 | +6.1% on the day | +2.2% | +6.8% | -8.1% | -4.9% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Nov 4 @ $78.77 | +2.2% on the day | -5.4% | -5.7% | -4.2% | -5.4% |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Oct 1 @ $77.73 | +1.4% on the day | 0.0% | +5.5% | -1.8% | +8.0% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Aug 6 @ $76.71 | +0.8% on the day | -3.1% | +1.1% | +0.2% | +2.7% |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Jan 16 @ $71.66 | +2.1% on the day | +0.6% | -1.1% | +1.1% | +9.3% |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Nov 21 @ $72.58 | +1.8% on the day | +0.1% | +1.2% | -4.1% | +3.5% |
| Sep 12, 2024 | Sep 12 @ $69.52 | +1.4% on the day | -0.1% | +1.5% | +6.1% | +1.2% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | Aug 8 @ $68.53 | +2.2% on the day | -0.1% | +1.8% | +0.9% | +7.4% |
| Jun 6, 2023 | Jun 6 @ $51.67 | +3.1% on the day | +1.4% | +1.3% | +4.7% | +6.5% |
| Oct 28, 2022 | Oct 28 @ $51.86 | +4.0% on the day | +0.4% | +2.0% | +8.2% | +11.9% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.