AIG
Moving with its group (KIE +1.2%)
- AIG +1.64% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The insurance ETF (KIE) +1.2% (+1.2 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+1.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.6%): After its 55 big gains in the past 5 years, AIG was higher a month later 32 times out of 55; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and +4.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 2 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Neutral, lowered target $85.00 → $83.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AIG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
78.25 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
79.28 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 78.70 · prior close 77.43 | |
| Bargain buy side |
76.62 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
75.63 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 76.36 | 2 in 10 days | 78.52 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 76.62 | 3 in 10 days | 78.25 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 76.86 | 4 in 10 days | 78.00 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 75.05 | 2 in 10 weeks | 79.88 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 75.63 | 3 in 10 weeks | 79.28 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 76.17 | 4 in 10 weeks | 78.71 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AIG's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AIG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 8, 2000 |
1,200.88 +1425.9% |
| Highest analyst target | 101.00 +28.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 88.20 +12.1% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 23, 2025 |
84.95 +7.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 80.00 +1.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 79.28 +0.7% |
| Now | 78.70 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
77.43 -1.6% |
| 200-day average | 75.84 -3.6% |
| 50-day average | 75.83 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 75.63 -3.9% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 21, 2026 |
70.53 -10.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.