AIR
Moving with the market
- AIR −0.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AIR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
99.77 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
103.23 +6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 96.84 · prior close 97.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
94.42 -2.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
91.26 -6.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 93.58 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 100.67 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 94.42 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 99.77 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 95.21 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 98.94 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 89.45 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 105.32 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 91.26 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 103.23 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 92.98 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 101.32 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AIR's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among AIR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 17, 2026 |
153.71 +58.7% |
| 50-day average | 122.64 +26.6% |
| 200-day average | 118.07 +21.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 103.23 +6.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
97.06 +0.2% |
| Now | 96.84 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 91.26 -5.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
77.35 -20.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.