AIZ
Moving with its group (XLF +1.2%)
- AIZ +1.91% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +1.2% (+1.0 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+1.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 64 big gains in the past 5 years, AIZ was higher a day later 25 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +0.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target $320 → $300.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AIZ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
280.03 +1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
284.67 +3.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 281.61 · prior close 276.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
272.68 -1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
268.24 -2.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 271.51 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 281.24 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 272.68 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 280.03 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 273.78 | 4 in 10 days | 278.90 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 265.66 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 287.43 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 268.24 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 284.67 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 270.66 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 282.12 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AIZ's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | +1.7% | 0.0% | — | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | +7.2% | -6.8% | -4.3% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.2% | -0.6% | +1.9% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +2.1% | +1.8% | +1.8% | -3.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +2.3% | +1.8% | +8.4% | +11.8% |
| May 14, 2026 | +4.2% | +1.2% | +3.0% | +12.1% |
| May 5, 2026 | +3.5% | +2.7% | +6.1% | +27.6% |
| Apr 8, 2026 | +2.2% | +0.1% | +4.5% | +25.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among AIZ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 355.00 +26.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 326.67 +16.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 5, 2026 |
300.64 +6.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 300.00 +6.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 284.67 +1.1% |
| Now | 281.61 |
| 50-day average | 277.87 -1.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
276.33 -1.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 268.24 -4.7% |
| 200-day average | 250.66 -11.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
204.72 -27.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 23 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.