AJG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AJG +5.62% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +5.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+5.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, AJG was higher a day later 23 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +0.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 3 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Neutral, lowered target $300 → $280.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AJG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
241.04 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
246.07 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 250.37 · prior close 237.04 | |
| Bargain buy side |
233.11 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
228.34 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 231.84 | 2 in 10 days | 242.35 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 233.11 | 3 in 10 days | 241.04 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 234.29 | 4 in 10 days | 239.82 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 225.58 | 2 in 10 weeks | 249.08 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 228.34 | 3 in 10 weeks | 246.07 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 230.94 | 4 in 10 weeks | 243.30 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AJG's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AJG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 388.00 +55.0% |
| All-time closing high Jun 2, 2025 |
343.29 +37.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
300.20 +19.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 284.17 +13.5% |
| Now | 250.37 |
| Lowest analyst target | 250.00 -0.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 246.07 -1.7% |
| 50-day average | 245.76 -1.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
237.04 -5.3% |
| 200-day average | 230.84 -7.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 228.34 -8.8% |
| 52-week closing low May 13, 2026 |
190.85 -23.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 42 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.