ALGN
Moving with its group (XLV +2.6%)
- ALGN +2.46% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.6% (+2.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Stifel maintained Buy, lowered target $210 → $175.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ALGN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
146.97 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
150.16 +4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 148.00 · prior close 144.44 | |
| Bargain buy side |
141.95 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
138.94 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 141.15 | 2 in 10 days | 147.80 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 141.95 | 3 in 10 days | 146.97 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 142.70 | 4 in 10 days | 146.20 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 137.20 | 2 in 10 weeks | 152.07 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 138.94 | 3 in 10 weeks | 150.16 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 140.58 | 4 in 10 weeks | 148.40 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ALGN's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ALGN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 8, 2021 |
729.92 +393.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 235.00 +58.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 199.21 +34.6% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 11, 2026 |
197.51 +33.5% |
| 200-day average | 169.56 +14.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 155.00 +4.7% |
| 50-day average | 154.72 +4.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 150.16 +1.5% |
| Now | 148.00 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
144.44 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 138.94 -6.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
128.43 -13.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.