ALGT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ALGT +4.14% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +4.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ALGT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
68.95 +3.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
71.57 +7.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 69.67 · prior close 66.90 | |
| Bargain buy side |
64.91 -3.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
62.53 -6.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 64.28 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 69.63 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 64.91 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 68.95 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 65.51 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 68.32 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 61.18 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 73.16 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 62.53 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 71.57 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 63.83 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 70.12 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ALGT's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.4% | -1.9% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -4.8% | +5.7% | +4.2% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -4.4% | +5.8% | +0.1% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -6.6% | -11.0% | -19.6% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -5.8% | +8.7% | -16.1% | — |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -5.3% | -3.4% | +39.3% | -9.9% |
| May 19, 2026 | -6.4% | +30.2% | +44.2% | +11.7% |
| May 11, 2026 | -4.4% | -5.9% | +1.0% | +11.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ALGT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 15, 2021 |
259.82 +272.9% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 1, 2026 |
119.16 +71.0% |
| 200-day average | 88.62 +27.2% |
| 50-day average | 79.11 +13.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 71.57 +2.7% |
| Now | 69.67 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
66.90 -4.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 62.53 -10.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
58.03 -16.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.