ALL
Moving with its group (XLF +0.9%)
- ALL +1.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +0.9% (+0.8 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, ALL was higher a month later 37 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -3.2% and +5.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 3 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Underweight, lowered target $226 → $221.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ALL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
239.81 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
244.38 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 239.40 · prior close 236.17 | |
| Bargain buy side |
232.59 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
228.24 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 231.44 | 2 in 10 days | 241.00 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 232.59 | 3 in 10 days | 239.81 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 233.67 | 4 in 10 days | 238.70 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 225.72 | 2 in 10 weeks | 247.10 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 228.24 | 3 in 10 weeks | 244.38 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 230.61 | 4 in 10 weeks | 241.86 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ALL's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ALL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 336.00 +40.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 6, 2026 |
273.97 +14.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 270.55 +13.0% |
| 50-day average | 247.09 +3.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 244.38 +2.1% |
| Now | 239.40 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
236.17 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 228.24 -4.7% |
| 200-day average | 224.22 -6.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 191.00 -20.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 29, 2025 |
186.39 -22.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.