ALLE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ALLE +1.52% on the last session vs SPY −0.04%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $2.50 expected (10 analysts); it moved ±6.9% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 58 big gains in the past 5 years, ALLE was higher a week later 34 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +2.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ALLE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
154.79 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
157.66 +3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 154.82 · prior close 152.50 | |
| Bargain buy side |
150.25 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
147.51 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 149.52 | 2 in 10 days | 155.53 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 150.25 | 3 in 10 days | 154.79 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 150.93 | 4 in 10 days | 154.09 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 145.93 | 2 in 10 weeks | 159.37 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 147.51 | 3 in 10 weeks | 157.66 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 149.00 | 4 in 10 weeks | 156.08 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ALLE's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ALLE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 202.00 +30.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 178.00 +15.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 6, 2026 |
177.73 +14.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 160.00 +3.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 157.66 +1.8% |
| 50-day average | 156.52 +1.1% |
| Now | 154.82 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
152.50 -1.5% |
| 200-day average | 148.93 -3.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 147.51 -4.7% |
| 52-week closing low May 15, 2026 |
124.69 -19.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.