ALM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ALM −1.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.9× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ALM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
10.71 +5.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
11.39 +11.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 10.05 · prior close 10.19 | |
| Bargain buy side |
9.70 -4.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
9.12 -10.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 9.54 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 10.88 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 9.70 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 10.71 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 9.84 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 10.55 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 8.79 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 11.81 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 9.12 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 11.39 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 9.43 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 11.01 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ALM's daily swings (about 5.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -7.2% | -15.8% | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | -9.0% | +6.3% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -9.6% | -14.7% | -28.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.9% | -17.1% | +37.0% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -11.3% | +2.0% | -1.1% | -21.6% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -6.2% | +3.9% | -12.4% | -11.1% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -9.5% | -3.1% | -19.0% | -17.3% |
| May 29, 2026 | -5.0% | -17.0% | -15.8% | -8.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ALM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Apr 17, 2026 |
23.42 +133.0% |
| 200-day average | 15.83 +57.5% |
| 50-day average | 14.84 +47.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 11.39 +13.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
10.19 +1.4% |
| Now | 10.05 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 9.12 -9.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
5.59 -44.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.