ALNT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ALNT −3.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ALNT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
102.68 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
107.23 +8.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 95.57 · prior close 99.13 | |
| Bargain buy side |
95.71 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
91.64 -7.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 94.62 | 2 in 10 days | 103.85 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 95.71 | 3 in 10 days | 102.68 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 96.73 | 4 in 10 days | 101.59 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 89.33 | 2 in 10 weeks | 110.01 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 91.64 | 3 in 10 weeks | 107.23 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 93.84 | 4 in 10 weeks | 104.71 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ALNT's daily swings (about 3.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -4.1% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -8.2% | +20.8% | +16.4% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -8.0% | +10.9% | +34.1% | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | -3.6% | -3.1% | +12.8% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -4.0% | -9.3% | -17.4% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -4.1% | +13.6% | +11.8% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -6.4% | +7.6% | +13.0% | +43.8% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -4.5% | -9.7% | -14.7% | +18.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among ALNT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
118.63 +24.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 107.23 +12.2% |
| 50-day average | 103.87 +8.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
99.13 +3.7% |
| Now | 95.57 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 91.64 -4.1% |
| 200-day average | 80.60 -15.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
48.32 -49.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 46 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.