ALRM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ALRM +1.53% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ALRM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
57.36 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
58.21 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 57.55 · prior close 56.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
56.01 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
55.19 -2.6% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 55.79 | 2 in 10 days | 57.58 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 56.01 | 3 in 10 days | 57.36 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 56.21 | 4 in 10 days | 57.15 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 54.72 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 58.71 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 55.19 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 58.21 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 55.64 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 57.74 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ALRM's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ALRM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 13, 2021 |
107.69 +87.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 58.21 +1.1% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 27, 2026 |
57.60 +0.1% |
| Now | 57.55 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
56.68 -1.5% |
| 50-day average | 55.67 -3.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 55.19 -4.1% |
| 200-day average | 49.47 -14.0% |
| 52-week closing low May 12, 2026 |
42.13 -26.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.