ALT
Moving with the market
- ALT −0.22% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ALT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2.38 +3.0% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
2.47 +6.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 2.31 · prior close 2.31 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.24 -2.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
2.16 -6.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.22 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 2.40 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 2.24 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 2.38 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 2.26 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 2.36 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.12 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.52 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.16 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.47 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 2.21 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.42 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ALT's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -5.1% | — | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -6.5% | -10.3% | — | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -5.4% | +9.8% | +10.8% | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -7.2% | -3.7% | +14.8% | +26.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | -6.7% | -3.9% | -10.2% | +1.3% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -16.7% | -10.0% | +0.3% | -4.2% |
| Mar 24, 2026 | -5.8% | -4.9% | -10.8% | -9.0% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | -17.9% | +2.7% | -5.0% | -16.7% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -1.9% | — | — | — |
| Jun 11, 2026 | -0.8% | +4.2% | +13.1% | +26.3% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | -1.4% | -1.1% | +2.8% | +3.9% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -2.3% | -9.6% | +2.1% | -12.3% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | -2.0% | +5.2% | +9.6% | +14.2% |
| Jun 26, 2025 | -53.2% | +31.9% | +11.6% | +8.6% |
| Mar 10, 2025 | -2.1% | +9.4% | -32.7% | +9.1% |
| Oct 19, 2023 | -7.5% | -0.4% | +4.7% | +330.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ALT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 26, 2017 |
133.20 +5678.7% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 27, 2026 |
6.18 +168.1% |
| 200-day average | 3.38 +46.7% |
| 50-day average | 3.01 +30.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.47 +7.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2.31 +0.2% |
| Now | 2.31 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
2.31 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.16 -6.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.