AMAT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AMAT +2.03% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Sep 29): After its 62 big gains in the past 5 years, AMAT typically gained 4.9% over the next month (median) and was higher 60% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -6.3% and +12.9%. An ordinary month: +2.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #117 of 500.
- 0 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $642 → $563.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#115 H | +0.7%#51 H | +2.3%#75 H | +8.0%#69 M |
| Big drop (-3.4% or worse) | 64 | +0.6%#68 H | +0.7%#210 H | +6.5%#19 H | +13.5%#103 M |
| Big gain Sep 29 (+4.1% or better) | 65 | -0.1%#339 H | +1.0%#112 H | +4.9%#117 H | +12.5%#96 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +1.1%#70 M | -0.3%#409 M | +1.1%#260 M | +6.4%#50 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +0.8%– | +6.7%– | -5.2%– | -9.0%– |
| 52-week high | 19 | +0.2%#175 M | -1.1%#423 M | +6.8%#19 M | +14.5%#41 M |
| 52-week low | 3 | -3.6%#221 L | -3.3%#226 L | +14.1%#65 L | +36.8%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | -1.4%#364 L | +6.5%#96 L | +1.5%#242 L | +7.4%#186 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +0.2%#127 L | +3.6%#76 L | +5.4%#46 L | +11.0%#128 L |
| RSI oversold | 4 | +0.7%#236 L | +3.0%#46 L | +8.6%#5 L | +27.9%#103 L |
| RSI overbought | 19 | +0.5%#74 M | -1.4%#412 M | +3.3%#39 M | +11.5%#50 M |
| Reddit spike | 9 | +1.2%#12 M | +0.7%#27 M | +1.1%#45 M | +17.2%#3 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 5 | +0.9%#6 L | +3.6%#3 L | +7.7%#1 L | +29.5%#2 L |
| Analyst downgrade | 4 | +1.9%#3 L | +5.8%#3 L | +18.2%#3 L | +51.9%#1 L |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 14 | +1.4%#5 M | +1.6%#12 M | -3.5%#21 L | -3.8%#17 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is AMAT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Reddit spike
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 9 | +1.19% (+1.1 to +1.7) | Medium | #12 of 92 | 78% | +1.03% |
-5%
+6%
|
|
| 1 week | 9 | +0.74% (-0.9 to +1.9) | Medium | #27 of 92 | 56% | +0.89% |
-3%
+5%
|
|
| 1 month | 9 | +1.10% (-9.1 to +8.3) | Medium | #45 of 91 | 56% | +1.04% |
-17%
+30%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 8 | +17.16% (-1.9 to +23.2) | Medium | #3 of 87 | 75% | +10.86% |
-10%
+38%
|
Range of outcomes: all of AMAT's Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Reddit spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 6 | +1.3%L vs +0.2% | +0.4%L vs +1.0% | +3.9%L vs +3.9% | +22.8%L vs +15.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 3 | +1.1%L vs 0.0% | +0.7%L vs +0.4% | +1.1%L vs +1.2% | +4.7%L vs +3.5% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 4 | -0.8%L vs +0.2% | +1.8%L vs +0.8% | +8.9%L vs +3.1% | +23.0%L vs +12.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 5 | +1.5%L vs 0.0% | -0.1%L vs +0.3% | -9.1%L vs +0.7% | +1.4%L vs +0.6% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 5 | +1.2%L vs +0.1% | +1.7%L vs +0.4% | +8.3%L vs +2.7% | +22.8%L vs +8.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 4 | +1.4%L vs +0.3% | +0.3%L vs +1.2% | -4.0%L vs +1.6% | +4.7%L vs +5.5% |
The same event split by where AMAT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest Reddit spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Aug 14 @ $506.64 | 142 mentions vs 2.6/day the week before | +5.5% | -2.8% | -16.9% | … |
| May 14, 2026 | May 15 @ $435.61 | 93 mentions vs 2.6/day the week before | -5.3% | -0.9% | +30.3% | +22.8% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Feb 13 @ $353.65 | 32 mentions vs 1.6/day the week before | +1.2% | +5.4% | -0.6% | +23.2% |
| Aug 14, 2025 | Aug 15 @ $160.41 | 108 mentions vs 2.3/day the week before | +1.1% | +0.7% | +7.6% | +38.4% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Feb 14 @ $166.93 | 22 mentions vs 1.6/day the week before | +1.7% | -0.1% | -9.1% | -1.9% |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Nov 15 @ $166.22 | 27 mentions vs 1.1/day the week before | +1.1% | +3.8% | +1.1% | +4.7% |
| Aug 15, 2024 | Aug 16 @ $204.24 | 113 mentions vs 1.4/day the week before | +1.5% | -2.3% | -9.1% | -10.4% |
| Feb 9, 2024 | Feb 12 @ $181.63 | 21 mentions vs 0.4/day the week before | -2.8% | +1.9% | +8.3% | +11.6% |
| Nov 16, 2023 | Nov 17 @ $145.15 | 21 mentions vs 0.9/day the week before | +2.7% | +1.7% | +9.5% | +28.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.