AMAT
Moving with its chip equipment peers
- AMAT −3.88% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −4.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Chip equipment basket -3.6% (-3.7 pts vs SPY; TER -6.1%, LRCX -4.6%, KLAC -3.3%, ASML -0.4%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: Tokyo Electron (Tokyo) -8.0%.
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.9% today so far, past its big-drop line of -3.6%): After its 63 big drops in the past 5 years, AMAT was higher a month later 44 times out of 63; half the outcomes fell between -3.2% and +10.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 76% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Evercore ISI Group maintained Outperform, lowered target $700 → $590.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMAT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
461.21 +3.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
479.88 +7.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 429.29 · prior close 446.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
432.52 -3.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
415.68 -6.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 428.03 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 466.04 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 432.52 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 461.21 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 436.74 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 456.74 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 406.10 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 491.20 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 415.68 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 479.88 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 424.82 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 469.56 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMAT's daily swings (about 3.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -6.7% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -7.1% | +9.4% | +9.4% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.3% | -1.5% | +10.9% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -5.1% | -2.8% | -16.9% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.7% | -5.3% | -9.6% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.5% | -8.6% | -8.7% | -11.8% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -10.0% | -9.6% | -22.0% | -21.4% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -8.5% | +23.4% | -3.9% | -19.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among AMAT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 900.00 +109.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
722.23 +68.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 632.28 +47.3% |
| 50-day average | 484.45 +12.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 479.88 +11.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
446.63 +4.0% |
| 200-day average | 437.63 +1.9% |
| Now | 429.29 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 415.68 -3.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 358.00 -16.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
216.99 -49.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.