AMC
Moving with its classic meme stocks peers
- AMC +2.94% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $0.02 expected (2 analysts); it moved ±5.6% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Classic meme stocks basket +4.2% (+4.1 pts vs SPY; OPEN +9.0%, KSS +5.8%, BYND +5.0%, GME +2.8%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
3.01 +4.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
3.17 +9.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 2.97 · prior close 2.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.77 -4.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
2.63 -9.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.73 | 2 in 10 days | 3.06 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 2.77 | 3 in 10 days | 3.01 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 2.81 | 4 in 10 days | 2.98 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.55 | 2 in 10 weeks | 3.27 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.63 | 3 in 10 weeks | 3.17 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 2.71 | 4 in 10 weeks | 3.09 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMC's daily swings (about 4.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -6.4% | -4.2% | — | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -4.9% | +2.0% | +2.0% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | -6.0% | -10.4% | -1.5% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -6.3% | +17.0% | +25.8% | — |
| Jul 6, 2026 | -7.9% | +7.5% | +54.0% | +59.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -24.6% | -8.7% | +9.6% | +42.8% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -11.6% | +13.7% | -4.9% | +44.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | -7.3% | -11.8% | +18.4% | +70.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among AMC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 2, 2021 |
625.50 +20925.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 4.00 +34.5% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 28, 2026 |
3.29 +10.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 3.17 +6.7% |
| Now | 2.97 |
| Mean analyst target | 2.95 -0.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2.89 -2.9% |
| 50-day average | 2.70 -9.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.63 -11.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 2.20 -26.1% |
| 200-day average | 1.90 -36.2% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
0.95 -68.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.