AMD
Down as OpenAI revenue misses expectations
- AMD −3.90% on the last session vs SPY −0.42%: −3.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: OpenAI's annualized revenue came in ~$20B below prior reports at ~$50B, sparking AI sector selloff per Benzinga. (benzinga.com)
- AI chips & networking basket -4.3% (-3.9 pts vs SPY; ALAB -9.2%, AVGO -4.3%, CRDO -3.7%, MRVL -3.5%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.9% on the day (line -3.8%)): After its 60 big drops in the past 5 years, AMD typically gained 0.3% over the next day (median) and was higher 52% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +2.1%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #216 of 498.
- 45 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 5 analyst actions in the past 10 days (3 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Buy, raised target $575 → $800.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | 0.0%#282 H | +0.6%#103 H | +0.7%#254 H | +2.7%#225 M |
| Big drop latest session (-3.8% or worse) | 61 | — | +0.3%#216 H | +0.4%#265 H | -1.4%#305 H | +8.1%#192 M |
| Big gain (+4.7% or better) | 72 | — | +0.1%#283 H | +0.9%#158 H | +3.0%#173 H | +14.7%#129 M |
| Earnings beat | 15 | +1.8%#200 M | -0.2%#265 M | +5.1%#71 M | +0.7%#251 M | +0.5%#240 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -1.7%– | +2.5%– | +2.2%– | +27.9%– | +46.8%– |
| 52-week high | 10 | — | +1.8%#84 M | +4.6%#76 M | +10.1%#116 M | +4.6%#204 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | — | +0.4%#121 L | -0.7%#246 L | +3.7%#91 L | +13.6%#76 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | -0.2%#252 L | -1.4%#266 L | -1.2%#305 L | -3.6%#266 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | — | 0.0%#262 L | +0.3%#250 L | +3.3%#228 L | +3.1%#220 L |
| RSI oversold | 8 | — | -0.7%#405 M | +1.2%#220 M | +6.4%#46 L | +8.4%#172 L |
| RSI overbought Oct 6 | 23 | — | +0.9%#125 H | +1.5%#100 H | -1.3%#269 M | +5.2%#180 M |
| Volume spike | 1 | — | +3.8%– | +6.2%– | +22.7%– | +5.2%– |
| Theme selloff latest session | 79 | — | +0.1%#47 H | +0.9%#23 H | -0.8%#58 H | +10.5%#20 M |
| Theme rally Oct 6 | 94 | — | 0.0%#53 H | +0.1%#57 H | +0.8%#49 H | +6.5%#38 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Oct 7 | 103 | — | 0.0%#57 H | +0.2%#62 H | +0.1%#64 H | +2.0%#49 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 9 | — | -0.9%#12 L | +2.1%#6 L | +20.0%#2 L | +18.3%#6 L |
| Analyst downgrade | 3 | — | +0.2%#8 L | +4.9%#4 L | +34.8%– | +32.9%– |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 5 | — | -0.1%#28 L | +0.5%#20 L | +14.8%#7 L | -1.2%#11 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is AMD's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Volume spike
Volume at least 3x the prior 20 sessions' average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1 | +3.83% | Too few | — | 100% | +4.20% | one event: +3.8% | |
| 1 week | 1 | +6.24% | Too few | — | 100% | +7.52% | one event: +6.2% | |
| 1 month | 1 | +22.75% | Too few | — | 100% | +22.21% | one event: +22.7% | |
| 1 quarter | 1 | +5.22% | Too few | — | 100% | +1.91% | one event: +5.2% |
Range of outcomes: all of AMD's volume spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Volume spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 1 | +3.8%– vs +0.1% | +6.2%– vs +0.7% | +22.7%– vs +2.7% | +5.2%– vs +12.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 1 | +3.8%– vs 0.0% | +6.2%– vs +0.6% | +22.7%– vs +0.4% | +5.2%– vs +11.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 1 | +3.8%– vs +0.1% | +6.2%– vs +0.8% | +22.7%– vs +1.2% | +5.2%– vs +6.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where AMD stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest volume spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2025 | Oct 6 @ $203.71 | 5.7x average volume, +23.7% on the day | +3.8% | +6.2% | +22.7% | +5.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.