AMD
Down on inflation data, rate worries
- AMD −3.67% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −3.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Tech sell-off continues as US inflation data stokes Federal Reserve rate concerns (Yahoo Finance). (finance.yahoo.com)
- AI chips & networking basket -3.1% (-3.1 pts vs SPY; ANET -5.7%, MRVL -3.6%, ALAB -3.3%, CRDO -2.3%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (Oct 9): After its 102 mention spikes in the past 5 years, AMD was higher a week later 54 times out of 102; half the outcomes fell between -4.2% and +5.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 55 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 76% positive over the week.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (3 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Buy, raised target $575 → $800.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
589.65 +3.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
613.79 +7.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 549.89 · prior close 570.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
552.59 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
530.86 -7.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 546.79 | 2 in 10 days | 595.90 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 552.59 | 3 in 10 days | 589.65 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 558.05 | 4 in 10 days | 583.89 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 518.49 | 2 in 10 weeks | 628.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 530.86 | 3 in 10 weeks | 613.79 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 542.65 | 4 in 10 weeks | 600.45 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMD's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -3.9% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.4% | +24.7% | +22.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.3% | -1.1% | +12.5% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -7.0% | +0.2% | -5.4% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -5.2% | -2.1% | -3.2% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.2% | -5.8% | -11.2% | +13.8% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -6.9% | +1.1% | -12.0% | +13.1% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -7.3% | +2.5% | -2.3% | +1.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among AMD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,250.00 +127.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
649.42 +18.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 636.21 +15.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 613.79 +11.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
570.82 +3.8% |
| Now | 549.89 |
| 50-day average | 536.10 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 530.86 -3.5% |
| 200-day average | 392.62 -28.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 365.00 -33.6% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 3, 2026 |
190.95 -65.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.