AME
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AME −0.82% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Baird maintained Neutral, raised target $275 → $280.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AME only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
249.72 +1.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
253.35 +2.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 244.79 · prior close 246.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
243.97 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
240.48 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 243.05 | 2 in 10 days | 250.67 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 243.97 | 3 in 10 days | 249.72 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 244.83 | 4 in 10 days | 248.84 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 238.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 255.50 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 240.48 | 3 in 10 weeks | 253.35 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 242.38 | 4 in 10 weeks | 251.36 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AME's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.0% | -0.7% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.4% | +3.4% | +7.4% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.0% | +0.6% | +6.3% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -1.6% | -3.3% | -6.1% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -2.6% | +8.3% | +3.6% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -2.0% | -1.7% | +1.9% | +4.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -3.1% | +3.4% | +3.0% | +5.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -3.5% | +4.4% | +4.8% | +5.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among AME's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 318.00 +29.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 281.94 +15.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 12, 2026 |
258.14 +5.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 253.35 +3.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
246.83 +0.8% |
| Now | 244.79 |
| 50-day average | 244.57 -0.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 240.48 -1.8% |
| 200-day average | 231.66 -5.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 217.00 -11.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 29, 2025 |
183.07 -25.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 42 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.