AMGN
Moving with its group (XLV +2.5%)
- AMGN +3.03% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.5% (+2.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 76 big gains in the past 5 years, AMGN was higher a month later 46 times out of 76; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +6.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 5 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 1 negative); latest: UBS maintained Buy, raised target $430 → $470.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMGN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
434.87 +2.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
445.94 +4.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 439.02 · prior close 426.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
417.53 -2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
407.16 -4.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 414.78 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 437.75 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 417.53 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 434.87 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 420.11 | 4 in 10 days | 432.20 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 401.19 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 452.58 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 407.16 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 445.94 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 412.81 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 439.84 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMGN's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | +2.6% | +3.2% | — | — |
| Sep 21, 2026 | +1.9% | +6.4% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | +1.9% | -10.7% | -7.0% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +4.0% | +0.1% | -12.3% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | +4.6% | +2.0% | +9.5% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +4.5% | -0.8% | +12.7% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.7% | 0.0% | +11.7% | +15.3% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.5% | -2.9% | +1.3% | +9.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among AMGN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 500.00 +13.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 445.94 +1.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 3, 2026 |
444.12 +1.2% |
| Now | 439.02 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
426.11 -2.9% |
| 50-day average | 414.02 -5.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 407.16 -7.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 395.25 -10.0% |
| 200-day average | 365.14 -16.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 27, 2025 |
283.30 -35.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 225.00 -48.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.