AMP
Moving with the market
- AMP +0.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 49 big gains in the past 5 years, AMP was higher a week later 30 times out of 49; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +2.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 2 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Underweight, lowered target $489 → $483.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
502.61 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
511.14 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 496.08 · prior close 495.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
489.12 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
480.96 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 486.96 | 2 in 10 days | 504.84 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 489.12 | 3 in 10 days | 502.61 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 491.14 | 4 in 10 days | 500.55 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 476.23 | 2 in 10 weeks | 516.22 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 480.96 | 3 in 10 weeks | 511.14 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 485.41 | 4 in 10 weeks | 506.45 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMP's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AMP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 645.00 +30.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 13, 2026 |
570.68 +15.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 568.45 +14.6% |
| 50-day average | 534.60 +7.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 511.14 +3.0% |
| Now | 496.08 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
495.82 -0.1% |
| 200-day average | 491.20 -1.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 483.00 -2.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 480.96 -3.0% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 6, 2026 |
427.50 -13.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.