AMPL
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMPL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
17.56 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
18.18 +6.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Last close | 17.08 | |
| Bargain buy side |
16.61 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
16.04 -6.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 16.46 | 2 in 10 days | 17.72 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 16.61 | 3 in 10 days | 17.56 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 16.75 | 4 in 10 days | 17.42 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 15.72 | 2 in 10 weeks | 18.56 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 16.04 | 3 in 10 weeks | 18.18 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 16.35 | 4 in 10 weeks | 17.84 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMPL's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among AMPL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 9, 2021 |
84.80 +396.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 18.18 +6.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 28, 2026 |
17.44 +2.1% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
17.08 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 16.04 -6.1% |
| 50-day average | 14.47 -15.3% |
| 200-day average | 9.61 -43.8% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
5.61 -67.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.