AMR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AMR −1.91% on the last session vs SPY −0.08%: −1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
180.61 +3.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
188.46 +8.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 171.17 · prior close 174.51 | |
| Bargain buy side |
168.61 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
161.60 -7.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 166.74 | 2 in 10 days | 182.64 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 168.61 | 3 in 10 days | 180.61 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 170.38 | 4 in 10 days | 178.74 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 157.61 | 2 in 10 weeks | 193.22 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 161.60 | 3 in 10 weeks | 188.46 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 165.40 | 4 in 10 weeks | 184.12 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMR's daily swings (about 3.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.3% | -6.8% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.5% | -11.3% | -7.0% | — |
| Sep 3, 2026 | -6.9% | -3.6% | -20.1% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -4.6% | +10.8% | +71.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.8% | -1.4% | +14.3% | +20.2% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.6% | -4.7% | -12.9% | +6.9% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -5.7% | -6.2% | -16.5% | +0.2% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | -4.3% | -3.0% | -24.2% | +17.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among AMR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 26, 2024 |
442.21 +158.3% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 15, 2026 |
249.65 +45.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 188.46 +10.1% |
| 50-day average | 188.38 +10.1% |
| 200-day average | 188.37 +10.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
174.51 +2.0% |
| Now | 171.17 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 161.60 -5.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 31, 2026 |
137.16 -19.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.