AMT
Moving with its group (XLRE +1.0%)
- AMT +1.80% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- The real estate ETF (XLRE) +1.0% (+0.8 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 9): After its 14 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, AMT was higher a week later 8 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -2.8% and +3.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
183.47 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
188.62 +5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 182.62 · prior close 179.40 | |
| Bargain buy side |
175.42 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
170.63 -4.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 174.15 | 2 in 10 days | 184.81 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 175.42 | 3 in 10 days | 183.47 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 176.62 | 4 in 10 days | 182.23 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 167.87 | 2 in 10 weeks | 191.72 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 170.63 | 3 in 10 weeks | 188.62 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 173.24 | 4 in 10 weeks | 185.78 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMT's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AMT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 260.00 +42.4% |
| All-time closing high Sep 8, 2021 |
256.92 +40.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 215.74 +18.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 5, 2026 |
190.23 +4.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 188.62 +3.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 188.00 +2.9% |
| Now | 182.62 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
179.40 -1.8% |
| 200-day average | 173.47 -5.0% |
| 50-day average | 171.84 -5.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 170.63 -6.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 6, 2026 |
160.38 -12.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.