AMTB
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AMTB +2.13% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close: EPS $0.57 expected (3 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMTB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
28.93 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
29.36 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 29.19 · prior close 28.58 | |
| Bargain buy side |
28.24 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
27.82 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.13 | 2 in 10 days | 29.04 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 28.24 | 3 in 10 days | 28.93 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 28.34 | 4 in 10 days | 28.82 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 27.57 | 2 in 10 weeks | 29.62 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 27.82 | 3 in 10 weeks | 29.36 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 28.05 | 4 in 10 weeks | 29.12 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMTB's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AMTB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 1, 2022 |
33.27 +14.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
30.49 +4.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 29.36 +0.6% |
| Now | 29.19 |
| 50-day average | 29.07 -0.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
28.58 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 27.82 -4.7% |
| 200-day average | 24.51 -16.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
16.43 -43.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.