AMZN
Moving with the market
- AMZN −0.26% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Cloud stocks fell 4.0% on AI worries; AMZN underperformed sector slightly.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 9): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, AMZN was higher a month later 37 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -3.4% and +7.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 33 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 2 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight, lowered target $320 → $310.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AMZN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
258.43 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
263.90 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 253.43 · prior close 254.08 | |
| Bargain buy side |
249.81 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
244.62 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 248.44 | 2 in 10 days | 259.85 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 249.81 | 3 in 10 days | 258.43 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 251.09 | 4 in 10 days | 257.10 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 241.63 | 2 in 10 weeks | 267.17 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 244.62 | 3 in 10 weeks | 263.90 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 247.45 | 4 in 10 weeks | 260.89 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AMZN's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AMZN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 405.00 +59.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 331.20 +30.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 3, 2026 |
284.02 +12.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 263.90 +4.1% |
| 50-day average | 257.49 +1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
254.08 +0.3% |
| Now | 253.43 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 244.62 -3.5% |
| 200-day average | 242.63 -4.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 230.00 -9.2% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 13, 2026 |
198.79 -21.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.