AN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AN +4.95% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +4.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
156.83 +2.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
161.45 +5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 160.77 · prior close 153.19 | |
| Bargain buy side |
149.63 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
145.35 -5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 148.50 | 2 in 10 days | 158.03 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 149.63 | 3 in 10 days | 156.83 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 150.70 | 4 in 10 days | 155.72 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 142.89 | 2 in 10 weeks | 164.23 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 145.35 | 3 in 10 weeks | 161.45 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 147.68 | 4 in 10 weeks | 158.90 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AN's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | -10.5% | -6.9% | — | — |
| May 19, 2026 | -1.8% | +9.2% | +5.7% | +12.3% |
| Oct 19, 2022 | -4.4% | +4.9% | +23.5% | +16.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among AN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 29, 2026 |
229.98 +43.0% |
| 200-day average | 196.30 +22.1% |
| 50-day average | 186.24 +15.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 161.45 +0.4% |
| Now | 160.77 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
153.19 -4.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
153.19 -4.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 145.35 -9.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 36 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.