ANET
Moving with its ai chips & networking peers
- ANET −6.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −6.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- AI chips & networking basket -3.2% (-3.2 pts vs SPY; ALAB -4.3%, AMD -4.0%, MRVL -3.7%, CRDO -2.9%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big drop (-6.0% today so far, past its big-drop line of -3.8%): After its 64 big drops in the past 5 years, ANET was higher a month later 49 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between +0.2% and +14.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Buy, raised target $215 → $248.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.3× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ANET only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
200.48 +2.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
206.91 +5.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 183.66 · prior close 195.42 | |
| Bargain buy side |
190.49 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
184.57 -5.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 188.91 | 2 in 10 days | 202.15 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 190.49 | 3 in 10 days | 200.48 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 191.97 | 4 in 10 days | 198.93 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 181.17 | 2 in 10 weeks | 210.79 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 184.57 | 3 in 10 weeks | 206.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 187.79 | 4 in 10 weeks | 203.36 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ANET's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.9% | +9.4% | +8.9% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.3% | -1.2% | +3.3% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -6.9% | +24.9% | +27.3% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -5.8% | +1.7% | +18.4% | +19.0% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -4.0% | +16.9% | +15.6% | +27.8% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -7.1% | +4.7% | +8.9% | +26.5% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | -4.8% | -5.8% | +0.3% | +15.3% |
| May 15, 2026 | -4.0% | +8.5% | +18.3% | +42.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among ANET's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 289.00 +57.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 243.69 +32.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 9, 2026 |
216.74 +18.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 206.91 +12.7% |
| 50-day average | 198.69 +8.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
195.42 +6.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 190.00 +3.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 184.57 +0.5% |
| Now | 183.66 |
| 200-day average | 162.40 -11.6% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
116.13 -36.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.