AON
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AON +4.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +4.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 63 big gains in the past 5 years, AON was higher a day later 28 times out of 63; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +0.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 4 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight, lowered target $433 → $400.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AON only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
280.01 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
285.88 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 286.82 · prior close 275.35 | |
| Bargain buy side |
270.77 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
265.21 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 269.29 | 2 in 10 days | 281.54 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 270.77 | 3 in 10 days | 280.01 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 272.15 | 4 in 10 days | 278.59 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 261.99 | 2 in 10 weeks | 289.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 265.21 | 3 in 10 weeks | 285.88 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 268.24 | 4 in 10 weeks | 282.65 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AON's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AON's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 435.00 +51.7% |
| All-time closing high Mar 3, 2025 |
405.61 +41.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
380.39 +32.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 362.21 +26.3% |
| 200-day average | 327.34 +14.1% |
| 50-day average | 312.92 +9.1% |
| Now | 286.82 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 285.88 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
275.35 -4.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 2, 2026 |
269.45 -6.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 265.21 -7.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 229.00 -20.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 46 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.