AOS
Moving with the market
- AOS +0.01% on the last session vs SPY −0.70%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Thu): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AOS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
60.39 +1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
61.55 +3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 59.47 · prior close 59.47 | |
| Bargain buy side |
58.56 -1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
57.46 -3.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 58.27 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 60.69 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 58.56 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 60.39 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 58.84 | 4 in 10 days | 60.11 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 56.82 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 62.24 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 57.46 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 61.55 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 58.06 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 60.91 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AOS's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 15 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 15 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.2% | +5.1% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | +2.1% | -0.2% | — | — |
| Sep 3, 2026 | +2.1% | -5.2% | -5.9% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +4.8% | -2.1% | -10.7% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +4.3% | +0.5% | -6.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +2.2% | -0.5% | +3.8% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | +2.4% | -2.6% | +3.9% | -5.9% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | +4.8% | +3.3% | +1.0% | -3.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among AOS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 16, 2024 |
87.91 +47.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 84.00 +41.2% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 10, 2026 |
79.53 +33.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 69.91 +17.5% |
| 200-day average | 63.35 +6.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 61.55 +3.5% |
| Now | 59.47 |
| Previous close Oct 15, 2026 |
59.47 0.0% |
| 50-day average | 59.23 -0.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 59.00 -0.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 57.46 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 7, 2026 |
55.34 -7.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.