APA
Moving with the market
- APA −0.19% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, 52-week high (Oct 13): After its 5 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, APA was higher a day later 1 time out of 5; half the outcomes fell between -3.3% and -1.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Stephens & Co. reiterated Equal-Weight, target $49.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices APA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
48.45 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
49.82 +5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 47.28 · prior close 47.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
46.31 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
45.04 -4.9% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 45.98 | 2 in 10 days | 48.81 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 46.31 | 3 in 10 days | 48.45 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 46.63 | 4 in 10 days | 48.12 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 44.31 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 50.64 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 45.04 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 49.82 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 45.74 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 49.06 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From APA's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among APA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 20, 2008 |
104.56 +121.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 62.00 +31.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 49.82 +5.4% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 13, 2026 |
48.01 +1.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
47.37 +0.2% |
| Now | 47.28 |
| Mean analyst target | 46.44 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 45.04 -4.7% |
| 50-day average | 43.36 -8.3% |
| 200-day average | 36.05 -23.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 36.00 -23.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
21.16 -55.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.