APD
Moving with its group (XLB +1.5%)
- APD +0.91% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- The materials ETF (XLB) +1.5% (+1.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, APD was higher a week later 33 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Neutral, lowered target $330 → $312.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices APD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
295.85 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
300.00 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 295.19 · prior close 292.53 | |
| Bargain buy side |
289.25 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
285.25 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 288.19 | 2 in 10 days | 296.93 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 289.25 | 3 in 10 days | 295.85 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 290.24 | 4 in 10 days | 294.84 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 282.92 | 2 in 10 weeks | 302.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 285.25 | 3 in 10 weeks | 300.00 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 287.43 | 4 in 10 weeks | 297.72 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From APD's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among APD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 373.00 +26.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 342.53 +16.0% |
| All-time closing high Feb 3, 2025 |
323.10 +9.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 2, 2026 |
312.15 +5.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 305.00 +3.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 300.00 +1.6% |
| Now | 295.19 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
292.53 -0.9% |
| 50-day average | 292.33 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 285.25 -3.4% |
| 200-day average | 284.06 -3.8% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 9, 2025 |
224.78 -23.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.