APH
Moving with its group (XLK -1.2%)
- APH −2.24% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- The tech sector ETF (XLK) -1.2% (-1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 8): After its 64 big drops in the past 5 years, APH was higher a month later 47 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +9.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (3 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Buy, raised target $105 → $112.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices APH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
84.44 +2.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
86.65 +4.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 80.84 · prior close 82.69 | |
| Bargain buy side |
80.98 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
78.91 -4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 80.43 | 2 in 10 days | 85.01 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 80.98 | 3 in 10 days | 84.44 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 81.49 | 4 in 10 days | 83.90 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 77.72 | 2 in 10 weeks | 87.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 78.91 | 3 in 10 weeks | 86.65 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 80.04 | 4 in 10 weeks | 85.43 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From APH's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -2.5% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -6.4% | +2.8% | +9.5% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -2.5% | -7.6% | -5.2% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -3.0% | +5.3% | +1.9% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -4.4% | -3.4% | -0.8% | +4.3% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -4.2% | +11.1% | -0.8% | +4.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -5.4% | +10.8% | +14.2% | +19.5% |
| May 11, 2026 | -4.3% | -0.6% | +21.8% | +36.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among APH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 116.00 +43.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 101.66 +25.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
88.62 +9.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 86.65 +7.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 85.00 +5.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
82.69 +2.3% |
| 50-day average | 82.27 +1.8% |
| Now | 80.84 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 78.91 -2.4% |
| 200-day average | 74.78 -7.5% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
59.39 -26.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.